EtusivuUpper Savo Scenarios 2036

Upper Savo Scenarios 2036

Scenario work has been an essential part of KesTech’s foresight activities, and the previous Upper Savo scenarios were developed in 2023. As the operating environment changes rapidly, updated visions of the future are needed to explore alternative development paths. The scenario work described here was carried out during the winter of 2026. Upper Savo is in the Northern Savo region of Finland.

The project developed three future scenarios that address key themes shaping the future of Upper Savo and build a shared understanding of measures that can be implemented in the region. The scenarios were based on KesTech’s own foresight data, including competence needs interviews, as well as recent reports and studies concerning the future of Northern Savo.

Based on this material, three alternative scenarios were created. They describe future opportunities and threats, identify related competence needs, and provide recommendations for businesses, educational institutions, and municipalities.

It is important to note that no scenario aims to predict the future or provide certain knowledge about what will happen. Nor is a scenario an optimistic vision or the single most likely development path. Instead, each scenario presents one possible and alternative future trajectory. This is why several scenarios are needed: to examine future possibilities from different perspectives.

Scenario 1: Sustainability Pathway – The Green Transition Advances, but the Population Declines

What if Upper Savo became Finland’s leading bioeconomy and circular economy region by 2036, even as its population continued to decline?

By 2036, Upper Savo has established itself as a national model region for the bioeconomy. The environmental work of municipalities and companies serves as an example for others. Joint actions create synergies. Large companies thrive particularly in biorefining, the food industry, and mechanical and energy technology as new technologies improve productivity. Export performance has been moderately successful.

At the same time, however, the working-age population declines by approximately 400–500 people annually, weakening public services and increasing regional disparities.

Opportunities

Clean Energy Investments Drive Growth

  • Upper Savo has become a national model region for the bioeconomy and circular economy, and the green transition has progressed through improved energy efficiency, clean energy solutions, and the utilization of material flows.
  • Earlier regional investments in biogas, wind power, and solar energy have created new business opportunities.
  • Green hydrogen is emerging as a potential new raw material.
  • Companies have adapted to a changing climate in Upper Savo. Measures to safeguard biodiversity have slowed the loss of natural habitats.

Individual Companies Succeed Internationally

  • Exports are growing, particularly in biorefining and the food and engineering industries.
  • Mechanical and energy technology sectors benefit from advances in automation, robotics, and artificial intelligence, strengthening competitiveness.
  • The EU’s industrial strategy for a competitive, green, and digital Europe, together with the Net-Zero Industry Act (NZIA), increases demand for domestic clean technology manufacturing.

Threats

Increasing Vulnerability of SMEs

  • Small and medium-sized enterprises fall behind in sustainability development, climate risk management, and the adoption of new technologies, weakening their competitiveness.
  • Skills shortages limit business growth and investments.

Pressure on Public Finances

  • As the working-age population shrinks, municipal service structures become thinner, and some municipalities are forced to outsource or reduce basic services.

Competence Needs in Scenario 1

Circular Economy and Renewable Energy

  • Material flow management, circular business models, and the use of artificial intelligence.
  • Biogas, green hydrogen, biochar, and energy production technologies.

New Technologies

  • Multi-disciplinary expertise that combines process knowledge with new technologies.
  • Collaborative robots, autonomous systems, and Physical AI capabilities.

Climate Risk Management and Sustainability Competence

  • Corporate adaptation to climate change.
  • Carbon and biodiversity footprint calculation.

Future Question

Will Upper Savo in 2036 be a frontrunner of the green transition that fully harnesses the potential of the bioeconomy and circular economy, or will growth be constrained by population decline, skills shortages, and the erosion of public services?

Scenario 2: Networked Attractiveness

What if Upper Savo became Finland’s most networked and competence-attractive region by 2036?

Cooperation and Competence as Drivers of Growth

By 2036, Upper Savo is a region where networks, partnerships, and expertise form the foundation for growth. Municipalities, educational institutions, and businesses work closely together, attracting talent, investments, and new opportunities. However, population decline has not been fully reversed.

Opportunities

Strong Networks

  • Industrial clusters, such as mechanical engineering and energy technology clusters, strengthen and open new national and international collaboration opportunities.
  • Municipalities form a shared vitality network that enhances development and attracts investments.

Competence Hubs

  • Educational institutions establish competence hubs serving all of Eastern Finland in areas such as artificial intelligence, clean energy, robotics, and automation.

New Markets and Partnerships

  • Stronger EU internal markets, defence investments, NATO networks, and the reconstruction of Ukraine create new export and cooperation opportunities.

Threats

Regional Imbalance

  • Services continue to weaken in some municipalities, increasing tensions and widening the gap between urban centres and peripheral areas.

Accessibility Challenges

  • Investments in physical transport infrastructure, including the Savonia railway and Highway 5, remain insufficient, and deteriorating infrastructure becomes a barrier to development.

Fragmented Networks

  • Without clear coordination, networks remain fragmented and fail to deliver their full benefits.

Labour Availability

  • Outmigration continues if international talent does not settle permanently in Upper Savo.

Competence Needs in Scenario 2

Network Building and Collaboration

  • Continuous dialogue between education providers and businesses.
  • Leveraging networks for business development.

Labour Market-Oriented Education and Skills Development

  • New technologies.
  • Strengthening young people’s working-life skills.
  • Developing targeted training programmes that respond to business needs.

International and Multicultural Competence

  • Cross-cultural communication and leadership.
  • Developing family-friendly services for international professionals.

Future Question

Will Upper Savo in 2036 be a networked, internationally attractive, and technologically progressive region capable of responding to population decline, skills shortages, and labour market transformation, or will it be left relying on fragmented initiatives and reactive development?

Scenario 3: Export-Driven Growth – Leveraging the Investment Wave

What if Upper Savo doubled its exports by 2036? How can capacity, talent, logistics, and financing be scaled without compromising quality or delivery reliability?

Core Idea

By 2036, Upper Savo has successfully connected itself to the investment wave in Northern Savo. The region’s €13 billion investment potential fuels subcontracting, maintenance, logistics, and technology services in particular. EU free trade agreements have opened new markets, and export growth generates vitality across the region. At the same time, geopolitical uncertainty and rapid market changes increase investment risks.

Opportunities

  • Market expansion through EU free trade agreements: Agreements with regions such as Mercosur countries, Africa, India, and Australia facilitate access to new markets and deepen internationalisation.
  • Secondary effects of investments: Regional demand increases order books and creates opportunities for system deliveries, modernisation projects, and lifecycle services.
  • Positive impact on the region’s attractiveness and ability to retain residents and businesses.

Threats

  • Skills shortages slow growth: Bottlenecks emerge in production, engineering, maintenance, and international sales unless workforce availability improves.
  • Free trade opportunities may remain underutilised, or agreements may prove less beneficial than expected.
  • Weak logistics and accessibility: If infrastructure fails to keep pace with investment growth, costs increase and competitiveness weakens.
  • Limited investment capacity among SMEs: Lack of capital and restricted access to financing hinder timely technology and export investments.
  • Pressure on public finances: Declining service quality reduces the region’s attractiveness.

Competence Needs in Scenario 3

Export and Market Competence, and Cultural Awareness

  • Understanding trade agreements and their business opportunities.

Delivery and Quality Management Competence

  • Quality management expertise and understanding customer requirements.

Production and Technology Competence

  • Capabilities required to scale exports.
  • Adoption of modern equipment and advanced production methods.

Future Question

Will Upper Savo in 2036 be the most agile beneficiary of the investment wave and a driving force in SME exports, successfully turning trade agreements, automation, and smart logistics into competitive advantages, or will growth be held back by skills shortages, logistical bottlenecks, and pressures on public finances?